Turkey's Exit from NATO: Why the delay?

NATO’s official press release followed the completion of the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The question of Turkey withdrawing from NATO was not officially on the agenda, but the Atlanticists have reason to be alarmed. Erdogan’s visit to Russia and the strengthening of the two countries’ cooperation on such key strategic issues as Syria testify to the failure of plans to push the two powers into conflict. If one considers the two presidents’ meeting in the context of Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s recent visit to Ankara and the summit held between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran in Baku, then it is understandable that what is at stake is not merely the restoration of pre-crisis relations, but a powerful step forward towards incorporating Turkey into Eurasian integration processes and its possible, future accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Simultaneous membership in the SCO and NATO is unlikely. Both organizations perceive each other as enemies. The rapprochement with Russia, Iran and China suggests a break with the United States. These are geopolitical maxims. However, Turkey has yet to declare its readiness to withdraw from NATO. How can this be explained? Is NATO a guarantor of Turkey’s security to at least some extent?

To begin with, let us recall that Turkey's accession to NATO in 1952 was due to territorial claims posed by the Soviet Union. From 1945 to 1953, the Soviet Union proposed the establishment of a base in the area of ​​the Black Sea Strait, as well as to push the border in the Caucasus to the border line of the Russian and the Ottoman empires from 1878. Russia currently has no claims to the Bosporus and the Dardanelles and there is no common border between the two countries in the South Caucasus. There is similarly no longer the Soviet Union, whose communist ideological expansion formed another point of opposition and another excuse for the Turkish Republic to join NATO. Thus, the factors that caused Turkey’s accession to NATO are no longer relevant. Moreover, the emerging alliance with Russia and China removes the factor of a Russian military threat from the agenda in principle.

Hypothetically, Article 5 of the Washington Treaty promises Turkey the support of other NATO member countries in the case of external aggression. In practice, however, the response measures within the framework of the mechanisms for exercising Article 5 are left at the discretion of member states. This means that a state can limit itself to a mere diplomatic note of support without providing any real aid. NATO never exercised Article 5 in cases of Turkey clashing with other states, despite the Turkish side’s attempts to initiate the process. A classic example is NATO’s response to the conflict betwe